Mar 14

Financial Adventurism Warren Buffett Style

“A little personal history may partially explain our extreme aversion to financial adventurism” -Warren Buffett 2010 Annual Report

 Image Credit to Carl Richards and the Bucks Blog Post: Investing Is Not Entertainment

While doing some research for a blog post I came across a great story from Warren Buffett that he shared in the 2010 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report. The story shares a lesson from Ernest in 1939 emphasizing of the importance of keeping a reserve fund.  The reserve or emergency fund has a purpose and although it may seem with the low rate environment we are experiencing today that investing those funds in riskier assets is a better idea, Ernest shares, “Forget it — the mental satisfaction of having $1,000 laid away where you can put your hands on it, is worth more than what interest it might bring, especially if you have the investment in something that you could not realize quickly.”

Important!

$1,000 in 1939 is equivalent to $9,182 today at an assumed 3% inflation rate.

 

 

Notice

A critical component of a financial plan is not only laying out your goals but to put safety guards in place in order to ensure you can weather market and life fluctuations.  The riskier your lifestyle or cash flow, the larger the reserve is needed.

 

Make saving money automatic (or like a game) to meet your financial goals

 

Enjoy…….

A little personal history may partially explain our extreme aversion to financial adventurism. I didn’t meet Charlie until he was 35, though he grew up within 100 yards of where I have lived for 52 years and also attended the same inner-city public high school in Omaha from which my father, wife, children and two grandchildren graduated. Charlie and I did, however, both work as young boys at my grandfather’s grocery store, though our periods of employment were separated by about five years. My grandfather’s name was Ernest, and perhaps no man was more aptly named. No one worked for Ernest, even as a stock boy, without being shaped by the experience.

On the facing page you can read a letter sent in 1939 by Ernest to his youngest son, my Uncle Fred. Similar letters went to his other four children. I still have the letter sent to my Aunt Alice, which I found – along with $1,000 of cash – when, as executor of her estate, I opened her safe deposit box in 1970. Ernest never went to business school – he never in fact finished high school – but he understood the importance of liquidity as a condition for assured survival. At Berkshire, we have taken his $1,000 solution a bit further and have pledged that we will hold at least $10 billion of cash, excluding that held at our regulated utility and railroad businesses. Because of that commitment, we customarily keep at least $20 billion on hand so that we can both withstand unprecedented insurance losses (our largest to date having been about $3 billion from Katrina, the insurance industry’s most expensive catastrophe) and quickly seize acquisition or investment opportunities, even during times of financial turmoil.

 

 For more tips visit my homepage or www.letsmakeaplan.org

 

The information in this article is not intended to be tax and/or legal advice and should not be treated as such. You should consult with your tax advisor and/or attorney to discuss your personal situation before making any decisions.

Additionally, If you are looking for additional help, seek help from a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional that can look at your individual situation holistically

Mar 06

Tips for Minimizing Sequestration’s Impact on Personal Finances

 

Now that “Storm Sequester” has hit, potentially cutting billions from the federal budget, Americans are experiencing different levels of its impact. Some are right in the storm’s eye, enduring hard and immediate effects. Others are experiencing the sequester as a bout of bad weather that they need to plan around. For most Americans, however, the sequester may be just another depressing report on the evening news—creating a sense of worry and uncertainty but no local impact.

Whatever your zone, CFP Board has some advice to help you weather the storm:

 

Zone 1: Federal workers and contractors who could be furloughed or laid off:

  • Devote your extra free time to finding ways to effectively manage your finances despite a smaller paycheck. 
  • Cut approximately 2 percent from your expenses for every week on furlough. Set aside what you’ll save on commuting, lunches out and child care.
  • Arrange to make payments to any loans you may have from a federal Thrift Savings Plan or 401(k).

 

Zone 2: Consumers who are impacted by higher costs and more wait time:

  • Expect upticks in food prices. Change your consumption habits and consider eating less meat and more locally grown vegetables to curb the rising costs of chicken and beef.
  • Plan in advance to avoid longer security lines at the airport. For a small fee, frequent fliers can apply for a “Pre-Check” clearance to bypass the standard security process.
  • Parents and college students should establish a plan for managing college costs earlier on in the process. Rising loan origination fees may result in decreased availability or more costly financial aid, and tax credits and deductions for college expenses could disappear or be pared back.

 

Zone 3: Those who are (seemingly) impact-free:

  • Heed the overall warning that the sequester brings. Take more responsibility for your health, retirement security, and readiness to respond to a tough economy.
  • Update your resume and keep your skills sharp and current in case the cumulative effect of the sequestration results in another economic recession—and necessitates a job search.
  • Budget, make savings a priority, and establish an emergency fund.


For helpful resources and tips on financial planning or to find a Certified Financial Planner™ professional, visit LetsMakeaPlan.org.

Contact: Dan Drummond, Director of Public Relations, 202-379-2252, ddrummond@cfpboard.org, @CFPBoardmedia

 

The information in this article is not intended to be tax and/or legal advice and should not be treated as such. You should consult with your tax advisor and/or attorney to discuss your personal situation before making any decisions.

Additionally, If you are looking for additional help, seek help from a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional that can look at your individual situation holistically

Feb 27

Kate Upton to Help Stocks?

I have heard just about every reason for and against investing in the stock market.   A few of my favorites are related to…you know the line…if this does X then the stock market will do Y….    One of the more recent reasons was research done by a Chinese student trying to predict the stock market through Twitter by saying that fear and hope words and the rise and fall of those words will dictate price movements in the stock market.  Should we be long quesadilla companies such as Chipotle based on the twitter feeds?   I don’t think so…..

 

Today I read a story written by someone else following this topic and I wanted to share it with you today.   Larry Swedroe from the BAM Alliance writes about the relationship of Kate Upton and other Swimsuit Cover models to the stock market:

Kate Upton’s Swimsuit Cover to Boost Stocks? – Larry Swedroe

Kate Upton has landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated’s swimsuit issue for the second year in a row, and if you choose to believe it, that means its going to be a banner year for stocks.

There are many myths out there about stock market performance being linked to all sorts of indicators. There’s the lipstick indicator, the hemline indicator and the cardboard box indicator. There’s even links to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning the Super Bowl and the butter production in Bangladesh supposedly telling us what type of year to expect.

One of the most interesting is the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Cover Indicator, established by the Bespoke Investment Group. Simply put, the indicator states that stocks perform better when an American is on the cover of the swimsuit issue.

I asked my Investment Mistakes co-author RC Balaban to take a look and see how the indicator has fared. At the risk of being a killjoy, here’s what we found.

While the Bespoke Investment Group goes back to 1978, we went back to 1964, since we have the names and nationalities of the cover models since then. (Thanks Wikipedia!) From 1964 through 2012, the average annual return of the S&P 500 Index has been 11 percent. The average return when an American is on the cover is 11.8 percent, compared with 10.7 percent when a non-American appears. (For the record, covers with both Americans and non-Americans were excluded.)

While that may not seem like a big difference, the Americans outperformed more often. The yearly return of the S&P 500 was higher than average in 16 of the 24 years when an American graced the cover. When a non-American appears, the S&P 500 outperformed its average only nine times in 20 tries.

Does this mean anything? Of course not. It’s simply another example illustrating that we can’t use what has happened in the past to predict what will happen in the future. (Though we can hope Kate brings us another year of outperforming returns.)

This commentary appeared February 15 on Larry’s blog at CBSNews.com.

 

The information in this article is not intended to be tax and/or legal advice and should not be treated as such. You should consult with your tax advisor and/or attorney to discuss your personal situation before making any decisions.

Additionally, If you are looking for additional help, seek help from a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional that can look at your individual situation holistically

Feb 22

Wealth Management Insights: 2013 Economic Outlook

Wealth Management Insights: 2013 Economic Outlook is a presentation of Bell State Bank & Trust’s Wealth Management division. This presentation is presented by Greg Sweeney, our Chief Investment Officer and Investment Committee Chairman, and Michael B. Hardy, our Senior Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager.

 

 

Video Highlights:

Presentation by Greg Sweeney: Chief Investment Officer and Investment Committee Chairman

  • Demographics – The Big Picture (2:17)
  • Unemployment and employment update (4:04)
  • Discussion on the fiscal cliff (6:05)
  • Congressional budget office forecast (6:48)
  • Where is the federal debt? (7:33)
  • Government revenue and spending (10:13)
  • What does the consumer look like? (11:50)
  • Federal reserve balance sheet statistics (14:49)
  • Inflation vs. reality (17:07)
  • Real disposable income (19:40)
  • Consumer confidence (20:05)
  • The future of the housing market (21:05)
  • Economic bright spots (22:26)
  • Economic themes (24:19)
  • What does our uncertainty feel like? (25:15)

Presentation by Michael Hardy: Senior Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager

  • Perspective of the stock market (26:59)
  • What destroys consumer confidence? (29:50)
  • Find out where the market is headed (31:36)
  • Earnings growth (34:55)
  • Mergers and acquisitions (37:55)
  • Global equity valuations (38:46)
  • Alternative assets (40:35)
  • An update on gold (43:30)
  • The stock market and recessions (45:51)
  • Expectations for the market (47:01)

Presentation by Greg Sweeney: Chief Investment Officer and Investment Committee Chairman

  • Bonds (48:25)
  • Four rules of solid investing (53:23)
  • Set up a strategy (54:40)

Learn more about how our Wealth Management team can help you reach your financial goals.

 

The information in this article is not intended to be tax and/or legal advice and should not be treated as such. You should consult with your tax advisor and/or attorney to discuss your personal situation before making any decisions.

Additionally, If you are looking for additional help, seek help from a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional that can look at your individual situation holistically

Feb 09

How Emotional is Your Portfolio?

How Emotional is Your Portfolio is a recent post by Carl Richards at Behavior Gap.  Carl shares insight into a problem that is easy to overlook yet causes so many mistakes.  From individuals holding onto portfolios comprising of 100% Enron stock to, more recently, holding onto concentrations of British Petroleum only to watch a rig explode and instantly lose significant portfolio value only to have to sell the shares because of retirement cash flow needs.  Emotional attachment and disconnect drove those decisions and ultimately harmed those people.  Working with a trusted advisor can help  you take the emotions out of your portfolio and focus directly on your goals rather than that stock your dad’s dad owned because he thought it sounded good.

Enjoy!

-Paul

 

How Emotional is Your Portfolio?

Image 1

It’s not unusual to make investing decisions based on emotion. Why not own a big chunk of your company’s stock? Why not keep that random stock you inherited from your parents? Why not keep that stock that’s dropped in price because you’re sure it will return to its former highs?

In each of these situations, the odds are high that emotion is playing a role in your decision making. And while I can’t claim that emotion hurts every investing decision, it’s something we tend to underestimate. So the next time you’re relying on feelings to drive your investing I want you to think of Bill Gates. Yes, that Bill Gates.

Josh Brown at The Reformed Broker highlighted this story a few days ago. Since leaving Microsoft, Bill Gates has steadily reduced his holdings in the company down to 20 percent. Think about that for a minute. He’s the company’s founder and led it for many years.

Now, I’m not sure you could feel more attached to something than if you built it. Why does he do it? As Josh indicated, there’s a moral to the story that applies to us, too:

…the second richest man in the world shows us the value of knowing when to walk away, no matter how sentimental or close to you an investment once was. To say nothing of the value of spreading out the chips just in case a once-great investment turns into a mess on someone else’s watch.

Emotions are a great thing, but I’m not sure they have a place in our portfolios. So knowing that emotions can trip us up, what are you prepared to do to counter the emotion?

What if we build a plan that puts some guardrails in place? What if we take the time to ask the question, “Why am I making this decision?”

Look, I’m the first to admit that it’s not easy to behave and make smart money decisions. But we’re making it even harder on ourselves if we fail to acknowledge that emotion plays a role in our investing and that we need to figure out a strategy to counter it.

Carl


The information in this article is not intended to be tax and/or legal advice and should not be treated as such. You should consult with your tax advisor and/or attorney to discuss your personal situation before making any decisions.

Additionally, If you are looking for additional help, seek help from a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional that can look at your individual situation holistically

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